24 Times Weather Forecasts Got It Really Wrong
Meteorologists, like sports referees, often face public ire, whether they forecast accurately or not.
When weather predictions are correct, it’s easy to forget meteorologists are giving us just that: a prediction. However, when meteorologists miscall severe weather, the consequences range from districts canceling schools for snowstorms that never show up to deaths because people weren’t warned in time to stay home.
Both outcomes draw criticism, with people publicly questioning the role of meteorologists.
1. The Schoolhouse Blizzard of 1888
Following a spate of pleasant mild weather on January 11, 1888, locals in Dakota (before its 1889 division into two states) had no idea what would hit them. The next day, the temperatures fell 37 Celsius when a surprise snowstorm swept the Great Plains state.
Over 230 people lost their lives, primarily children and farmhands, which was down to the Army Signal Corps, who opted not to warn them.
2. The 1888 New York Blizzard
With the events in Dakota already over, New Yorkers received the same treatment two months later when mild temperatures soon plummeted when a deep freeze set in. The outcome was 400 deaths — the conditions were so frigid that 200 sea vessels capsized, drowning 100 seamen that year.
Thankfully, this event brought change — the National Weather Bureau was founded soon after.
3. The 1922 Knickerbocker Storm
On January 26, 1922, local forecasters predicted continued mild weather for the people of Washington, D.C. However, the next day brought more than two feet of snow in only 24 hours, breaking state records.
The Knickerbocker storm claimed 98 lives and injured 133 victims, most of whom were entirely unprepared.
4. The Tri-State Tornado of 1925
This time, Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois became the focal point for one of America’s most fearsome natural disasters. Without any forecast given, one of the deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history claimed 695 lives on March 18, 1925.
The damage was avoidable: in years past, authorities banned the word “tornado” lest it spread panic.
5. The Oklahoma Air Force Base Tornadoes of 1948
1948, a devastating tornado ripped through Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma. Although this episode claimed $10 million worth of damage, it led to a successful tornado studying program that ensured an accurate prediction five days later.
The Weather Bureau formed its first Severe Local Storms (SELS) unit four years later.
6. The Storm of the Century, 1953
1953 saw the United Kingdom’s worst post-World War II loss of life, following uncontrollable flooding after a storm surge ravaged the North Sea coastline in England and the Netherlands. Despite U.K. Met Office predictions, the lack of a local warning system meant a shocking 2,500 people died.
However, the Storm Tide Warning Service and Thames Barrier came soon after.
7. The Chicago Snow Dump of 1967
Chicago doesn’t mess around when it comes to snow storms. Weather predictions in January 1967 expected a few inches of snow. However, almost two feet fell overnight, bringing the Windy City to a standstill, with 800 city buses and over 50,000 cars abandoned.
The snow was so deep that commuters were forced to sleep at work or book hotel rooms, and helicopters delivered supplies across the city.
8. The British Blizzard of 1970
Many incidents of weather disasters involve unprepared reporting services with a dated methodology. Following protocols, the Met Office only issued snow warnings in the early hours of that day.
Unsurprisingly, when 18 inches fell for 10 hours in Central and Southeast England on May 4, 1970, people were unprepared — many motorists were left stranded.
9. The British Heatwave of 1976
You know things are bad when the United Kingdom needs to install a drought minister. However, this is what Britain did in 1976, following Mojave Desert-style conditions from May until August.
Thankfully, British weather has a sense of humor: the day the minister for drought, Denis Howell, started his new job, the drought ended with an August rainstorm.
10. Hurricane Elena, 1985
Most older millennials and young Gen-Xers will remember the American hurricane that swept the Gulf Coast in 1985. Unfortunately, meteorologists have a 100-mile margin for error, though Hurricane Elena didn’t make their lives easy.
Her zig-zagging pattern and unpredictable path meant it deviated from its predicted path, costing $1.3 billion in damage and nine lives.
11. Britain’s Great Storm of 1987
“If you’re watching, don’t worry; there isn’t (a hurricane on the way),” said weatherman Michael Fish with the most famous last words in British weather forecast history. “Having said that the weather will become very windy.”
He was technically correct, though the 100mph winds that whipped the British Isles that day caused 18 deaths, a capsized ship, and 15 million uprooted trees. Michael Fish’s name is now synonymous with lousy weather predictions in Britain.
13. The Boscastle Flood of 2004
Cornwall sits on Britain’s southwestern corner, leaving it at the whim of Atlantic storms and rainfall. In 2004, after a mild flood warning, a vicious torrent of water descended on Boscastle, a Cornish fishing village, destroying 58 buildings and carrying 150 cars away.
Met Office officials claim it came from a local weather pattern due to inland and coastal air convergence-driven rain. Thankfully, nobody lost their life, though £50 million worth of damage came in its aftermath.
14. The Katrina “Hoax” of 2005
Hurricane Katrina lived in our memories long after its cataclysmic landfall in 2005, leaving millions stranded and causing 2,000 fatalities. However, National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Ricks issued a warning so harsh that locals thought it was a hoax.
His predictions included water shortages that would “make human suffering incredible by modern standards” and that power outages would “last for weeks.” Sadly, Ricks was right, and the aftermath was shocking.
15. The Minnesota Tornado of 2008
Minnesotans experienced a devastating supercell storm in May 2008 when four tornados in succession swept through the Twin Cities region. The town of Hugo suffered a terrible turn of events after their storm warning sirens stopped working.
Tragically, many locals thought the storm was over, resurfacing to find giant hailstones falling and winds that lifted buildings from the ground.
16. The “Barbecue” Summer of 2009
British barbecues are something of an oxymoron — I should know, as I am British. Only the foolhardy would plan a barbecue in a country whose weather is as erratic as its citizens.
However, in 2009, bookies offered odds-on bets for a “barbecue summer” in April based on the Met Office’s long-range seasonal forecast. However, the weather bureau backtracked their prediction to “unsettled” weather once they realized there would be few barbecue days on the horizon.
This gaffe led to “Wet-Office” mockery across tabloids and social media.
17. The Cold Snap of 2009, United Kingdom
Never foreigners to extreme weather events, British subjects, still reeling from their wet summer, enjoyed another Met-Office long-range forecast error.
Following their “barbecue summer” mistake, the weather bureau offered solace with a mild winter forecast. Against all odds, Britain shivered in its coldest, snowiest winter for 30 years. Those long-range seasonal forecasts are tricky for an island on the edge of a continent and ocean.
18. India’s 2009 Drought
India is 13.5% desert and relies on monsoon rains each summertime, though predicting these weather events is difficult. In 2009, the India Meteorological Association assured farmers the rains would come on time. Subsequently, farmers sowed their seeds as usual, only for the rains to come much later.
The driest Indian monsoon for 83 years was catastrophic for Indian crops and local communities.
19. Typhoon Conson, Philippines, 2010
South East Asia receives its fair share of tropical storms, labeling them typhoons instead of hurricanes. In 2010, Manila suffered a deluge of rain and wind when Typhoon Conson hit Manila.
What made things worse was no warning from Filipino weather scientists, meaning the capital city was unprepared, leaving 111 people dead and causing significant infrastructural damage.
20. Britain’s Cold Snap of 2010 – 2011
The British government was culpable for bringing Britain to its knees in one of its coldest, whitest winters on record. This time, the Met Office estimated correctly in October 2010 that the country would undergo an extreme winter.
Sadly for British voters, their government failed to warn the public, fearing the inaccuracy of the previous years’ long-range seasonal forecasts. Chaos followed after the leaders issued a public warning, mere days before the first snows weakened the country.
21. Superstorm Sandy, 2012
America was no stranger to dangerous storms in 2012, and experts correctly predicted Sandy would arrive that October. However, they got the category wrong, giving it less emphasis than necessary, which many say made people less worried.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) decided against issuing hurricane warnings north of North Carolina as per its protocol. However, Sandy merged with another two storms, giving it superstorm status, far worse than the public expected.
22. Indonesia’s Forest Fires, 2015
People across parts of Southeastern Asia endured months of poor air due to raging forest fires blowing up from Indonesia in 2015.
Indonesian officials misjudged that year’s El Niño effect, which created unseasonably dry conditions, sparking fires across the land. In the aftermath, many regions now show a spike in respiratory illnesses linked to this event.
23. The Hungarian Ghost Storm, 2022
St. Stephen’s Day in Hungary is an important national holiday in which locals flock to the streets of Budapest, enjoying the August sun and watching fireworks across the Danube River.
However, an inverse meteorological failure came when experts predicted a terrible storm, prompting officials to cancel the much-anticipated fireworks. Sadly for the weather scientists, the storm broke east, leaving Budapest unaffected and the day’s revelers angry.
24. The Gansu Ultramarathon Mountain Storm, 2021
In China, twenty-one ultramarathon runners lost their lives after a 100k high trail running event coincided with extreme cold winds. While this event was not meteorologists’ fault, a lack of planning from race organizers led to level-nine winds, dropping air temperatures from 1 °C to -5 °C and exposing runners to hypothermic temperatures.
Organizers assumed an excellent weather prediction based on previous years’ events. However, if they had checked the weather warning the night before, it warned of category seven winds, accompanied by yellow dust and sand.
