Going ‘Green’ Will Require Spending Trillions of Dollars on Oil by 2030
A new report from the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights states that oil and gas capital expenditures must increase by $4.3 trillion between 2025 and 2030 for the energy market to remain stable. Without that stability, the “green” electric vehicle (EV) revolution is unlikely to succeed.
Gas and Oil Are Not Optional
The IEF and S&P Global report estimates that gas and oil companies will increase their capital spending by $24 billion this year. That means capital expenditures for gas and oil will eclipse the $600 billion mark this year, the highest in a decade.
However, the report states that more than $600 billion will be needed, and additional funding is required. According to the report, investments in the gas and oil industry must increase by 22 percent annually to $738 billion to maintain “adequate” supply levels for a stable energy market between now and the end of the decade.
Joseph McMonigle, the IEF’s Secretary General, said that such colossal investments are necessary for the transition to “greener” energy systems, “More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing. Well–supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate change because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition as we have seen in the past two years.”
North America Will Consume Most of That Oil
The report cites that North American investment and demand will drive most of this growth between now and 2030. Over 60 percent of this estimated growth in capital expenditures between now and the end of the decade will come from the Americas.
Those estimates are unsurprising, given that there are 282 million cars on the road in the United States, according to a report from Consumer Affairs. Only around 2.5 million of those vehicles are EVs or hybrids. That’s a lot of vehicles that need gas to fuel up. It’s important to note that the US also depends on a steady oil and gas supply for plenty of other products beyond cars. The demand for oil in the US will continue for a while.
However, the report also estimates significant demand and investment for conventional crude oil beyond North America will expand. Latin American countries like Guyana and Brazil will see “large expansions” in non–OPEC supply and growth.
The ‘Green’ Transition
The report from IEF and S&P Global cites these massive expenditures to support oil and gas as necessary for “energy security” and a “just, orderly and equitable” transition to “greener” energy. That transition is already well underway.
For example, communities in California are spearheading a growing movement to ban the building of new gas stations. At the same time, the Durham, North Carolina community celebrated Kempower, a manufacturer of DC fast–charging stations and equipment for EVs, opening a new production facility. Durham Mayor Leo Williams even proclaimed that the date of the facility’s grand opening, June 4, 2024, will now be ‘EV Charging Awareness Week’ for his city.
But are EVs as “green” as we would like to believe?
No Tailpipe Emissions, but Plenty of Tire Pollution
A study found that tire wear on modern vehicles generates the most harmful pollutants. EVs, in particular, are the culprit here. The study found that EV tire wear produces up to 1,850 times more pollution particles than the tailpipes of gas-powered cars.
The issue with EVs is that their heavy batteries and increased torque wear down their tires, which are made from crude oil, significantly more than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. The study also cites that ICE tailpipe emissions are declining as those vehicles’ exhaust filters become more “efficient.”
Meanwhile, EV tire wear emissions will continue to increase as these vehicles gain mass, power, and torque. These power increases also lead to more “aggressive” styles of driving that produce higher levels of tire wear pollution. In other words, the hefty Chevy Silverado RST pickup truck’s 785 lb-ft of torque will create significant tire pollution that harms the environment.
EV Parts Require More Mining Than Ices
A recent study from the University of Cornell and the University of Michigan, “Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification,” states that the amount of copper the EV revolution requires is unprecedented. The study claims that the world needs to mine “115 percent more copper than has been mined in all of human history up to 2018” for society to achieve its lofty EV goals.
The study, co-authored by professors Adam Simon and Lawrence M. Cathles, states that manufacturing the average ICE vehicle requires around 52 pounds of copper. However, manufacturing the average EV requires more than 132 pounds of copper due to the amount automakers need to produce wiring and other essential components.
In addition to all the extra copper automotive manufacturers will require to produce EVs, the study also states that more copper is needed to update electrical grids to substantially support EV charging. Mining companies must discover and open new copper mines to meet this demand.
However, the study notes that a new copper mine can take over two decades to become operational due to lengthy permit and building processes. Given the world’s current copper supply, the study states that this makes it “highly unlikely” that there will be enough new mines to supply a global EV fleet within the next decade.
